Not a good new year

From the overheating East to a troubled West, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offers his predictions on the global economy next year. This bear is not for turning. It would be joyous indeed if a fresh cycle of global growth were safely underway, but I don’t believe it. Sorry. Policy levers in the US, Europe, and Japan remain set on uber-stimulus with the fiscal pedal pressed to the floor and rates near zero everywhere, yet OECD industrial output has not regained the peaks of 2007-2008 by a wide margin. Leading indicators are tipping over again. We are one shock away from a liquidity trap. The East-West trade and capital imbalances that lay behind the Great Recession are as toxic as ever. Surplus states are still exporting excess capacity with rigged currencies --the yuan-dollar peg for China and, more subtly, the D-Mark-Latin peg within EMU for Germany.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8230654/Ove...