Friday, December 4, 2009

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Tim Lacono

A lot of people are getting all worked up about the rising price of gold. Some say the current move has gone "parabolic" and that we're in the midst of a "blow-off top" akin to the early 1980s peak that saw the gold price disappoint investors for years afterward.
Just this morning, Hu Xiaolian, a vice-governor at the People's Bank of China, called gold a bubble and implied that the central bank wasn't much interested in buying thousands more tonnes of bullion as bank reserves at current prices.
Looking at the one-year gold chart below it's hard to disagree with that view, but there's much more to the story than that. In fact, as compared to previous moves up in this decade, the recent move has been rather tame so far for reasons that will be explained in a minute.
IMAGE

Since the yellow metal began its decade-long ascent in 2000, there have been distinct periods of rising prices, most of which have begun in the odd numbered years

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble' -- Seeking Alpha

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