By Theo Francis and Jessica Silver-Greenberg
At first glance, banks seem to be recovering nicely from the financial crisis. But investors cheered by optimistic earnings reports could soon face a painful surprise.
Many banks appear to be postponing inevitable losses on home-equity loans and commercial mortgages. Others face new trouble in consumer banking, especially credit cards. "Banks know they've got big holes on their balance sheets," says Paul Miller, an analyst for FBR Capital Markets.
The hopeful news is that overall bank industry earnings tripled, to $2.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with the disastrous three-month period a year earlier. But plenty of pitfalls remain, and more grief is certain if the economy takes a turn for the worse.
Consider home-equity lines of credit. During the real estate boom, many homeowners borrowed against the value of their dwellings to pay down credit-card balances, buy new cars, or even cover down payments on the very houses that anchored the loans. With property values down sharply in most markets, a lot of those loans now look shaky. Already, payments on $21 billion in credit lines are past due.
What Lurks on the Books of Banks
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