Thursday, October 8, 2009

South Africa: 'Recession may be over'

South African Flag

Image by lildude via Flickr

Nicole Rego

Economists believe South Africa could be out of a recession already, although there are no figures available yet to back this up.

Most economists base a recession on the premise of two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, seasonally adjusted and annualised.

After negative figures in the last quarter of 2008 and the first two quarters this year, chances are that third-quarter figures may show positive - albeit marginal - growth.

"I do think we're out of a recession already," said Citigroup chief economist Jean Francois Mercier.

Efficient group economist Dawie Roodt concurred, saying it has to be kept in mind that GDP figures are always old. "We don't yet have data for the third quarter, but we are already in the fourth quarter," he said.

"I think third-quarter data will be pretty much flat, but the last quarter of the year should post a smallish positive."

'Recession may be over'

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