Sunday, August 23, 2009

China's Credit Bubble and the Balance of Trade

European Central Bank
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Tyler Durden
Recent German economic data has been interpreted as indicative of a renaissance in the Eurozone's primary economy. Aside from the fact that Germany is ill prepared to handle its so-called "second credit crisis wave" (the ECB having much less free reign over printing wheelbarrows worth of Euros may have something to do with this), looking purely at GDP components one would note that a primary function of this anticipated growth comes primarily from a mathematical contribution resulting from an increase in net exports. From the Bundesbank's most recent monthly economic report:
According to provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office, in May the foreign trade surplus was up by 30.2 billion on the month to 39.6 billion. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, it rose from 39.0 billion to 310.3 billion. The value of exports rose slightly by 0.3%, while the value of imports declined by 2.1%. If April and May are taken together, seasonally adjusted nominal exports were 5.1% below the average for the first quarter of 2009. Of this, 0.6 percentage point can be attributed to export prices. Imports were down as much as 8.4%, with 1.7 percentage points due to market prices.
China's Credit Bubble and the Balance of Trade -- Seeking Alpha
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